The loss of land to development at the urban-rural/forest interface is of particular concern to policymakers as the irreversibility that it entails threatens the ecological and socioeconomic value of agricultural and forestlands.

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The aim of this project is to model private agents’ decisions about whether and when to convert their lands either to reversible or irreversible uses for policy purposes based on an empirical application to a Portuguese study site. To complement the statistical data, we intend to collect micro- data by conducting two surveys on local stakeholders, including landowners. After choosing the benchmark context, the structural model is calibrated and validated by using numerical simulations. Then, policy implications are derived based on scenario analysis, reflecting policy-relevant contexts associated with changes in the regulatory context, among others. The methodology proposed can be replicated, thus providing an important tool to guide policy design locally.

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Partner: Nova Information Management School

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Funded by: Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia

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Researchers: Maria Antonieta Cunha e Sá, Sofia Franco, Luis Catela Nunes, Carina Silva, Renato Rosa

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