Economics
Opinion Article
INVITED EDITOR
Editorial from
Tim Purcell
November 16, 2022
4. Quality education

4. Quality education

Ensure access to inclusive, quality and equitable education and promote lifelong learning opportunities for all.
LEARN MORE

Why Does This Chart Matter?

The number of recessions has declined since the Great Depression - is this a good thing?

Diego is reading Morgan Housel’s ‘Psychology of Money’ and stumbled upon this Rorschach test which we both instantly knew needed to be the next chart to discuss in this publication series.

U.S. recessions have been fewer and further between post-Great Depression. From 1854 to the Depression era, the U.S was in a recession 46% of the time - after the Depression, that number dropped to just 14%.

Unfortunately, Morgan never responded to our creeper Twitter DMs (if you know him, forward him this article will ya?), so we put it out to our panel to get their thoughts and we got, in my opinion at least, one of the best set of responses we've ever had from an amazing line up of contributors.

The why, the how, and the implications of this chart stretch far beyond first-degree cause and effect, which are explained in-depth below.

Enjoy!

Luke Gromen | FFTT, LLC.

In my opinion, the period of “less recessions” coincides with when the gold “shackles” were taken off the Fed.

  • The Fed was created in 1913, but until 1933, the gold standard kept the Fed’s ability to extend the business cycle in check
  • After 1933 (when the US devalued and went off the domestic gold standard), the Fed’s ability to extend business cycles via monetary policy was greatly enhanced.

This helped the Fed finance a series of wars (WW2, Korea, Vietnam), which ultimately drove inflation structurally higher. This high inflation threatened to drive hyperinflation of the USD, and so Volcker put the US into recession to defend the USD in 1979 by raising rates dramatically.

These high rates combined with globalization, in turn, set the stage for the next 35 years of “less recessions” as the Fed had the option to reduce rates to extend business cycles. While politically expedient in the near term, it ultimately led to where we are now, which is high levels of government debt as the Fed’s moves to extend business cycles and bailout repeated crises, leaving the Fed with little ability to raise rates to fight inflation without putting the nominal solvency of the US government at risk.

This is the natural outcome of attempts to use monetary policy to lengthen business cycles, effectively via the expansion of sovereign credit (via government spending and bailouts of the private sector). This is always politically expedient near- and intermediate-term, but ultimately leaves the sovereign in the position that it must choose one of two outcomes famously laid out by Ludwig von Mises:

There is no means of avoiding the final collapse of a boom brought about by credit expansion. The alternative is only whether the crisis should come sooner as the result of voluntary abandonment of further credit expansion, or later as a final and total catastrophe of the currency system involved.”


Every fiat currency system has eventually reached this point; the consensus among US policymakers was that the US exceptionalism meant the current system would never reach that point, but in the aftermath of the COVID crisis, it appears this system to has reached that point (a problem for all fiat currencies, not just the USD.)

Alfonso Peccatiello (Alf) | The Macro Compass

The chart is great. It summarizes extremely well how our monetary system has changed throughout time and why that means policymakers are much less willing to experience a full economic cycle unfolding - including recessions - especially after the 1970s.

This article was originally puplished on The Lykeion. You can subscribe to their newsletter here to access the full article.

Tim Purcell
LEARN MORE
SHARE

Keep reading

“NOVAFRICA Sustainable Development Talks” podcast episode with Jonathan Weigel

"Optimal Assignment of Bureaucrats: Evidence DRC", with Jonathan Weigel, University of California

From flies in urinals to higher savings rates: How nudging influences our decisions

Nudging has been the start point of many economic studies, particularly in behavioral economics, as it explores how people´s decisions could significantly change predictably by modifying the context of such decisions in a very subtle form. The concept was first introduced by the Nobel Prizewinner Richard Thaler and Professor Cass Sunstein. However, Thaler stressed the point that nudging should be used for good, intending to improve society’s welfare, but has his wish become a reality?

Zona de Impacto: From post-covid recovery to tha lack of human resources, what changed in tourism?

This episode touches on the 'motor' of the Portuguese economy, tourism. This economic activity went through 'gloomy' days during the pandemic and lost many human resources. NovaSBE's professor Sérgio Guerreiro and the students Isabel Morgado dos Santos and Maria Pacheco analyzed the topic in a conversation with Expresso.

Facebook Causes Protests

Under the theme of Economic Development in Africa, the NOVAFRICA@Nova SBE seminar series hosts a variety of international speakers. This seminar invited Leopoldo Fergusson, Universidad de los Andes.

THE CHOICES OF

Zona de Impacto: Mentalities evolved; however, women are still discriminated in the job market. Why?

Statistics are known. Women have a higher qualification rate than men, but they receive less (for the same jobs) and are more precarious. When it is time to reach roles of responsibility, they have a harder life (and, as the companies get bigger, the worse it is). The topic is old, solutions take a long time to produce effects, and this worries the youth. Marta Everard and Rita Mendes, students at NovaSBE and members of the club Women on Board, explain how they perceive their labor’s future

Subscribe our weekly newsletter

By subscribing to the Nova SBE Role to Play newsletter, you can stay up-to-date on the latest articles posted on the website.
Thank you! Your submission has been received!
Oops! Something went wrong while submitting the form.

We all have a role to play

We are on a mission to be a community dedicated to the development of talent and knowledge that impacts the world.

With just ten years to go, an ambitious global effort is underway to deliver the 2030 promise. We want to take a stand and we are calling on our community to showcase how they are contributing to the 17 Sustainable Development Goals, whilst influencing more and more people to unravel their role to play.

Here, you will find four different ways your ideas can flourish, dialogue can be enhanced, and action can take place. You can choose one or all four, and Nova SBE will be there to support you all the way and guarantee tangible change.

We all have a role to play, and this is your way in.